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Guest worker programs are a popular component of today's immigration reform proposals, and President Bush's plan is no exception. But guest worker programs have their problems, especially that many such programs in history have resulted in permanent settlement by large numbers of guest workers. Given that a guest worker program is likely in the United States, it is important to identify strategies to reduce the permanence of guest workers. A key component of such a strategy is the establishment of a circular pattern for migrant workers, that is, a pattern where migrant workers can go back and forth between their home country and host country. Circular patterns will likely reduce the number of guest workers that will stay, and will lead to an overall healthier and more successful guest worker program.
A Successful Guest Worker Program
Most scholars would probably agree that a relatively successful guest worker program would result in filling short-term labor needs while minimizing permanent migration. In other words, a critical component to success is that guest workers migrate only on a temporary basis, and that the majority eventually return to their host countries.
The degree to which guest workers can be expected to return home is largely unknown due to a lack of historical trials, although history generally says repatriation rates are very low. There have been only a handful of attempts at large-scale guest worker programs, and among them the implementation varied greatly. This has led to a situation in which scholars attempt to make predictions and derive models using a very limited data set. As a result, there seems to be a general consensus that there can be no temporary guest worker program, and that eventually such programs will turn into long-term settlements. Contrary to this consensus, there is also evidence that certain strategies may be able to greatly increase repatriation rates. In particular, the establishment of circular patterns looks promising.
The Potential Value of Circular Patterns
A circular pattern refers to a condition where migrant workers are able to freely move between their home country and host country. This pattern is important because it helps migrant workers maintain social ties with their home country. This can lead to eventual permanent repatriation for many reasons. First, it may help migrants maintain a sense of belonging to their original communities. It may also encourage migrants to develop business relationships and look for financial opportunities in their home countries. For immigrants in the United States, a circular pattern means being able to return home without the risk of being shut out when trying to return to the US. Daniel Griswold argues that most Mexicans who come to the United States do not have plans to stay permanently, and that the goal is typically to return home and rejoin families and communities (Griwsold 6). The implication here is that migrant workers are afraid to return home for fear they will not be able to easily return to the US. As will be discussed in a later section, the Bracero program created informal circular patterns. Griswold points out that about 84% of Mexican immigrants during the Bracero program eventually returned home (Griswold 6).
Factors That Influence Circular Patterns
There are many conditions that must be present for circular patterns to occur. Guest workers must be allowed to travel between their home country and host country without a realistic threat of deportation or denied re-entrance. If there is a chance that a guest worker will not be allowed to return to the US once they leave, the risk may be too great to return home. Safety of travel is also a factor for guest workers and dangerous travel would likely discourage trips home. The cost of travel may also be a limiting factor - if travel home is too expensive, workers may choose not to return.
Today's (illegal immigrant) environment is very poor for establishing circular patterns for migrant workers. To illustrate this point, imagine an Mexican illegal immigrant who crossed the border to take a job in Texas. As the immigrant begins to miss home or has desires to return home to visit, those desires are squashed by reality. To travel home would require carefully crossing the border, paying for private transportation, saving enough money for the return trip, paying someone for assistance in reentering the United States, and dealing with the dangers that come with crossing the border illegally. The risks and costs associated with a return trip home are far too high for most illegal immigrants. This means that perhaps the best possibility to reunite with family or friends is to encourage them to enter the US.
Historical Trials
One of the most significant lessons learned from guest worker programs of the past is that temporary workers have typically evolved into permanent residents. One such major program is the German "Gastarbeiter" program of the 1960-70s, which began as a temporary worker program, but resulted in the permanent settling of millions of migrant workers. The Gastarbeiter program, however, strongly discouraged circular patterns. It created an "under the radar" mentality in which migrant workers were in fear of being deported, had few freedoms and rights, and would face difficulty in returning if they left (Castles 523-524). Many guest workers chose instead to move their families into Germany. It is possible that this settlement pattern could have been reduced by creating circular migratory patterns.
The Bracero program in the US told a slightly different story. For decades, the US had a de facto guest worker program, in which immigrants were largely free to come and go as they chose. This created a circular pattern in which most immigrants eventually returned home.
There is also evidence that shutting down a circular pattern may lead to increased permanent migration. In 1986, the IRCA acted to effectively shut down the de-facto circular pattern, and the result was a significant increase in undocumented immigrants - the number rose from 4 million to 8 million (Griswold 5)
Griswold also points out the interesting relationship between the US and Puerto Rico. Since Puerto Ricans are American citizens, they are free to enter and work in the US unconditionally. Yet migration rates to the US from Puerto Rico are very low. Griswold proposes that this is largely due to the freedoms of circular movement granted to Puerto Ricans (Griswold 12).
Policy Recommendations
There are several features that would help encourage circular patterns within a guest worker program. The first, and most obvious, feature is to place no restrictions on return visits to the guest worker's homeland. Any restriction on returns or, more importantly, re-entrances - would be damaging to the prospects of a strong circular pattern.
A second important feature in encouraging circular patterns is to keep costs minimal. To do so, re-entrance fees should be small or nonexistent. Another possibility might be to provide public, mass ground transportation between the United States and Mexico. This could be accomplished by a specialized train or bus system, and could even be subsidized by the US and Mexican governments to keep costs down. Such a scheme would encourage frequent visitations home for Mexican guest workers, keeping social ties strong. A strong transportation component would also leave guest workers that chose to return home with a sense that they could venture back to the US with little difficulty and cost. Additionally, an open transportation system with minimal re-entrance fees would drastically reduce dangerous border crossings.
A third feature would be to build portability into the visa system (Meissner 3). Essentially, visa portability allows guest workers to change jobs during their visa period, and consequently, to have time off between jobs. This would allow workers opportunities to return home in breaks between jobs, and provide an overall sense of having more control over employment decisions. As evidenced in the case of Puerto Rico, a sense of free choice is important in establishing circular patterns.
These and other features should be explored in developing a guest worker program that creates a strong circular pattern. The relationship between the US and Puerto Rico should be examined as a successful case of open immigration that reaches equilibrium. Historical trials have shown that guest worker programs generally result in large numbers of permanent migrants, but circular patterns provide a strong potential for reducing long term settlement.
Bibliography
Castle, Stephen. 1985. "The Guests Who Stayed - the debate on 'foreigners policy' in the German Federal Republic." International Migration Review, 19(3): 517-34.
Griswold, Daniel T. 2002. "Willing Workers: Fixing the Problem of Illegal Mexican Migration to the United States". Cato Institute. Center for Trade Policy Studies. Trade Policy Analysis No. 19. October 15, 2002. On-line edition.
Meissner, Doris. 2004. "U.S. Temporary Worker Programs: Lessons Learned." Migration Information Source. March 1, 2004. Washington, DC. On-line edition.
